Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence.

نویسندگان

  • G Gigerenzer
  • U Hoffrage
  • H Kleinbölting
چکیده

Research on people's confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensive framework, the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory). The theory (a) explains both the overconfidence effect (mean confidence is higher than percentage of answers correct) and the hard-easy effect (overconfidence increases with item difficulty) reported in the literature and (b) predicts conditions under which both effects appear, disappear, or invert. In addition, (c) it predicts a new phenomenon, the confidence-frequency effect, a systematic difference between a judgment of confidence in a single event (i.e., that any given answer is correct) and a judgment of the frequency of correct answers in the long run. Two experiments are reported that support PMM theory by confirming these predictions, and several apparent anomalies reported in the literature are explained and integrated into the present framework.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Probabilistic Mental Models : A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence 1

Research on people’s confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensive framework, the theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM theory). The theory (a) explains both the overconfidence effect (mean confidence is higher than percentage of answers correct) and the hard-easy...

متن کامل

ON INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN FUZZY METRIC STRUCTURES

Considering the increasing interest in fuzzy theory and possible applications,the concept of fuzzy metric space concept has been introduced by severalauthors from different perspectives. This paper interprets the theory in termsof metrics evaluated on fuzzy numbers and defines a strong Hausdorff topology.We study interrelationships between this theory and other fuzzy theories suchas intuitionis...

متن کامل

Developing and validating an instructional design model based on mental model theory

Abstract: This research has been done to develop and validate an instructional design model based on mental model theory. Based on mental model theory human being can do reasoning and problem solving through mental models. The main purpose of this model is to help pupils construct mental models, gain expertise and promote problem solving. In order to develop this model and response to research ...

متن کامل

Probabilistic Sufficiency and Algorithmic Sufficiency from the point of view of Information Theory

‎Given the importance of Markov chains in information theory‎, ‎the definition of conditional probability for these random processes can also be defined in terms of mutual information‎. ‎In this paper‎, ‎the relationship between the concept of sufficiency and Markov chains from the perspective of information theory and the relationship between probabilistic sufficiency and algorithmic sufficien...

متن کامل

Probability Modeling of Synthetic Theories in Economics

Economic theories seek a scientific explanation or prediction of economic phenomena using a set of axiom, defined expressions, and theorems. Mathematically explicit economic models are one of these theories. Due to the unknown structure of each model, the existence of measurement error in economic committees and failure of Ceteris Paribus; the Synthetic of any economic theory requires probabili...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Psychological review

دوره 98 4  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1991